Trading For A Living In The Forex Market Pdf

3 coisas que gostaria de saber quando comecei a negociar Forex Trading Forex não é um atalho para riqueza instantânea. Alavancagem excessiva pode transformar estratégias vencedoras em perdedores. O sentimento do varejo pode atuar como um poderoso filtro comercial. Todo mundo vem para o mercado Forex por um motivo, variando entre exclusivamente para entretenimento para se tornar um comerciante profissional. Comecei a aspirar a ser um comerciante de Forex em tempo integral e auto-suficiente. Fui ensinado a estratégia perfeita. Eu passei meses testando e backtests mostrou como eu poderia fazer 25,000-35,000 por ano fora de uma conta 10.000. Meu plano era deixar minha conta composta até que eu estivesse tão bem, eu não teria que trabalhar novamente na minha vida. Fui dedicado e comprometi-me com o plano 100. Comparando com você os detalhes, meu plano falhou. Acontece que negociar lotes de 300k em uma conta de 10.000 não é muito indulgente. Perdi 20 da minha conta em 3 semanas. Eu não sabia o que me atingiu. Algo estava errado. Felizmente, parei de negociar nesse ponto e tive a sorte de conseguir um emprego em um corretor Forex, FXCM. Passei os próximos dois anos trabalhando com comerciantes de todo o mundo e continue me educando sobre o mercado Forex. Jogou um papel importante no meu desenvolvimento para ser o comerciante que sou hoje. 3 anos de negociação rentável depois, tive o prazer de me juntar à equipe no DailyFX e ajudar as pessoas a se tornar comerciantes bem-sucedidos ou mais bem-sucedidos. O fato de eu contar essa história é porque eu acho que muitos comerciantes podem se relacionar com o início deste mercado, sem ver os resultados que eles esperavam e não entender o porquê. Estas são as 3 coisas que gostaria de saber quando comecei a negociar Forex. 1 ndash Forex não é uma oportunidade rápida de Riqueza Ao contrário do que você leu em muitos sites na web, a negociação Forex não vai levar sua conta 10.000 e transformá-la em 1 milhão. O valor que podemos ganhar é determinado mais pela quantidade de dinheiro que estamos arriscando, e não por nossa boa estratégia. O velho ditado ldquoTre dinheiro para ganhar moneyrdquo é preciso, incluindo Forex trading. Mas isso não significa que não é um esforço que vale a pena, afinal, existem muitos comerciantes de Forex bem sucedidos lá fora, que procuram a vida. A diferença é que eles desenvolveram lentamente ao longo do tempo e aumentaram sua conta para um nível que pode gerar renda sustentável. Eu ouço sobre os comerciantes o tempo todo visando 50, 60 ou 100 lucros por ano, ou mesmo por mês, mas o risco que eles estão assumindo será bastante semelhante ao lucro que eles estão visando. Em outras palavras, para tentar fazer lucro de 60 em um ano, não é razoável ver uma perda de cerca de 60 de sua conta em um determinado ano. Mas Rob, estou negociando com uma vantagem, então não estou arriscando tanto quanto eu poderia potencialmente ganhar, você pode dizer. Essa é uma declaração verdadeira se você tiver uma estratégia com uma vantagem comercial. Seu retorno esperado deve ser positivo. Mas sem alavancagem, será uma quantidade relativamente pequena. E em tempos de má sorte, ainda podemos ter raias perdedoras. Quando lançamos alavancagem na mistura, é assim que os comerciantes tentam atingir esses ganhos excessivos. O que, por sua vez, é como os comerciantes podem produzir perdas excessivas. A vantagem é benéfica até o ponto, mas não quando pode transformar uma estratégia vencedora em um perdedor. 2 Alavancagem pode causar uma estratégia vencedora para perder dinheiro Esta é uma lição que eu gostaria de ter aprendido anteriormente. Alavancagem excessiva pode arruinar uma estratégia de outra forma lucrativa. Digamos que eu tinha uma moeda que, quando as cabeças eram atingidas, você ganharia 2, mas quando as caudas foram atingidas, você perderia 1. Você viraria essa moeda. Meu palpite é que você viraria essa moeda. Você quer virar uma e outra vez. Quando você tem uma chance de 5050 entre fazer 2 ou perder 1, é uma oportunidade de não-brainer que você aceita. Agora, digamos que eu tenho a mesma moeda, mas desta vez, se as cabeças forem atingidas, você triplicaria seu valor líquido, mas quando as caudas foram atingidas, você perderia toda posse que possui. Você puxaria essa moeda. Meu palpite é que você não faria porque um piscarão ruim da moeda estragaria sua vida. Mesmo que você tenha exatamente a mesma vantagem percentual neste exemplo, como o exemplo acima, ninguém em sua mente certa viraria essa moeda. O segundo exemplo é quantos comerciantes de Forex vêem sua conta de negociação. Eles vão all-in em uma ou duas negociações e acabam perdendo sua conta inteira. Mesmo que seus negócios tenham uma vantagem como o exemplo da nossa moeda, basta apenas um ou dois negócios desafortunados para eliminá-los completamente. É assim que a alavancagem pode causar uma estratégia vencedora para perder dinheiro. Então, como podemos corrigir isso, um bom começo é usando apenas uma alavanca efetiva de 10x. 3 Usando Sentiment como guia pode inclinar as chances em seu favor A terceira lição que eu aprendi não deve ser uma surpresa para aqueles que seguem meus artigos. Usando o Índice de Sentimento Especulativo (SSI). Eu escrevi muitos artigos sobre esse tópico. É a melhor ferramenta que já usei e ainda é uma parte de quase todas as estratégias comerciais que estou usando, hoje em dia. O SSI é uma ferramenta gratuita que pode ser encontrada aqui, que nos diz quantos comerciantes são longos comparados com quantos comerciantes são curtos cada par de moedas principais. É destinado a ser usado como um índice contrariano onde queremos fazer o oposto do que todos os outros estão fazendo. Usá-lo como um filtro de direção para meus negócios transformou minha carreira comercial por completo. Aprenda com meus erros Se eu pudesse dizer ao meu eu mais novo 3 coisas antes de começar a negociar Forex, essa seria a lista que eu daria. Espero que eles ajudem o seu comércio, tanto quanto ajudou o meu. --- Escrito por Rob Pasche DailyFX fornece notícias de forex e análise técnica sobre as tendências que influenciam os mercados globais de moeda. Começa a resposta para Quão posso ganhar vida de forexquot Juntei-se em janeiro de 2010 Status: Não Espero por FF 3,772 Posts Eu vi isso Uma pergunta perguntou muitas vezes e então eu lhe darei a resposta que eu encontrei na esperança de que os iniciantes vão parar de pensar e começar a fazer o TRABALHO Citação da minha outra postagem: acabaremos com esta discussão: conheci dois comerciantes em tempo integral aqui no FF , Viram suas contas e até trocaram com elas. Aquele que trabalhou na Banca antes de se mudar para o forex e trouxe algo do que ele aprendeu para o Forex e ele é REALMENTE bom negociando com o m15 por suas entradas calculadas sobre H1 e H4 e, às vezes, até metas diárias e semanais. Ele tem uma conta muito grande agora, mas obviamente diversifica seu dinheiro em ações e propriedades para que sua negociação não seja sua única renda. Ele teve uma rentabilidade muito alta e uma manhã ele fez 20 mil apenas de Londres Open on Cable and Fiber. O outro cara começou com 30 mil dólares e funcionou até mais de 600k em 18 meses. Ele tinha explodido uma pequena conta antes disso, mas depois foi dito para duplicar 3 contas de demonstração antes de voltar a viver e assim ele fez. Ele disse que a mudança de demo para real foi muito fácil para ele depois disso, ao ver trocas em termos de pips e porcentagens em vez de Dollars. Ele recentemente se mudou para uma ilha e ainda está vivendo o comércio de sonhos. Ele tinha seu próprio negócio antes de se mudar para o Forex, nada na indústria financeira. Pare de ouvir os perdedores aqui que dizem que não pode ser feito, TI PODE 10 por mês não é nada comparado ao que alguns comerciantes podem fazer, mas torna-se mais difícil psicologicamente depois com quantidades maiores. Você não precisa de uma conta grande, mas 5k deve ser visto como um mínimo, mesmo que meu amigo tenha me contado histórias de seus amigos comerciais que eu não vou repetir aqui porque ninguém vai acreditar de qualquer maneira. Continue trabalhando e continue procurando O verso da Bíblia que diz busca e você encontrará, bate e a porta deve ser aberta pode ser aplicada aqui, REALMENTE eu tenho procurado e tocando e finalmente chegando lá. Até 83 na minha conta de demonstração em pouco mais de 6 meses, uma vez que é feito, faço isso duas vezes mais, corrigindo meus erros e descobrindo quais negociações eu não sou bom o suficiente para negociar e quais negociações eu faço muito bem e depois me concentro neles. Não tenho dúvidas de que eu serei um comerciante um dia e que ganharei a vida com isso. Esta é uma citação de meu amigo: isso leva algum tempo para estudar e se acostumar com isso. Eu sinto que seu maior problema é que você quer sucesso agora, você não pode tê-lo. O mercado exige que você coloque um certo tempo de cérebro antes de recompensá-lo, você não se tornou um jogador de rugby profissional na primeira vez que pegou a bola, você teve que trabalhar nela e ainda faz todos os dias. O comércio é exatamente assim que leva tempo e devoção, não há atalhos. Ninguém jamais se tornou um milionário emprestando um sistema ou participando de alguma classe. Tornar-se um milionário na negociação leva tempo, devoção, dilligence e paciência. Você será derrubado algumas vezes e precisará se retirar. No final, a negociação recompensará aqueles que apreciam e aprenderam suas nuances. Escolha uma estratégia e pratique, pratique, pratique. Uma velha mão que conheci me disse que levaria 10.000 horas de prática para conhecer uma estratégia, ele não estava errado. Fique atento a uma estratégia e comece a aprender, cada estratégia pode ser lucrativa, desde que funcione para você, e não para ninguém, apenas você. Comece a ler alguns livros também sobre análise técnica, há muitos deles escritos sobre ações e eles funcionam tão bem. quot Pare de fazer desculpas e trabalhe você bastardos preguiçosos :-) quot pawpaw1000 no Twitter Posso perfeito obrigado eu estive aqui por 1 ano , E irei dar novidades a alguns conselhos que aprendi com o meu tempo de negociação. NÃO PODE SER LEVANTADO OU NÃO SER COMPREENDIDO (são a mesma coisa). Uma conta 100 é igual a 10 000, se comparada a porcentagens. As pessoas que estão sob capitalização tendem a pagar por altas percentagens porque querem dinheiro rapidamente. Isso é um desastre Se a pessoa que tem 30.000 faz 10 por mês, ele tem muito menos bagagem nos ombros e ele pode viver fora da negociação. Quando você tem menos bagagem nos ombros, tudo irá funcionar no final. Se você apontar para retornos altos, você vai arruinar tudo por estar sobre emocionalnervousegreedyangryimpulsive e sua conta também Esta é a parte mais importante que os comerciantes precisam saber. Você não pode viver de negociação por ter uma pequena conta e apontar para retornos astronômicos. Isso é uma perda de tempo. Assim, uma pessoa que tem 3.000 (ou qualquer tamanho) conta também tem que fazer 10 por mês também, sem perguntas. Isso fará você disciplinar e manter suas emoções em cheque e você terá sucesso no final. Psicologia é 95 do jogo na negociação. Eu sei que isso vai soar clich, mas um dia isso terá sentido para você, quero dizer, realmente faz sentido para você, como um momento AHAA. A Tendência é sua amiga (Quando finalmente você realmente entender isso, você será lucrativo) Deixe os vencedores executarem e definam o risco (o meu mais recente comércio teve um RR de 20, não começou assim, mas permitindo que ele funcionasse) Aprenda a negociar PA limpa (Somente Maneira de ir, você pode continuar voltando para Indicadores, mas você falhará) Leia alguns livros como quotTrading no zonequot Gaste HORAS na frente dos gráficos. (Eu tenho gasto entre 3 a 12 horas por dia) TENHA UMA PAIXÃO PARA NEGOCIAÇÃO E OS MERCADOS. Como um esportista profissional, posso dizer-lhe que para ter sucesso em qualquer coisa, é preciso muito trabalho e perseverança. Quando você for derrubado, volte rapidamente e continue avançando. Quando você não está avançando, você está realmente se movendo de volta para o pawpaw1000 no Twitter. Eu sei que isso vai soar clich, mas um dia isso vai fazer sentido para você, quero dizer, realmente faz sentido para você, como um momento AHAA. A Tendência é sua amiga (Quando finalmente você realmente entender isso, você será lucrativo) Deixe os vencedores executarem e definam o risco (o meu mais recente comércio teve um RR de 20, não começou assim, mas permitindo que ele funcionasse) Aprenda a negociar PA limpa (Somente Maneira de ir, você pode continuar voltando para Indicadores, mas você falhará) Leia alguns livros como quotTrading no zonequot Gaste HORAS na frente dos gráficos. (Eu passei entre 3 a 12 horas. Tópico incrível e bons conselhos. Eu vi essa pergunta pediu muitas vezes e então eu lhe darei a resposta que eu encontrei na esperança de que os novatos vão parar de pensar e começar a fazer Citações de TRABALHO de A minha outra publicação: acabei com esta discussão: encontrei dois comerciantes em tempo integral aqui no FF, vi suas contas e até trocamos com eles. O que trabalhava na Banca antes de se mudar para o forex e trouxe algo do que aprendeu ao Forex E ele é REALMENTE bom negociando com a m15 por suas entradas calculadas sobre H1 e H4 e, às vezes, até metas diárias e semanais. Ele tem uma publicação muito grande e muito perspicaz e inteligente - você obviamente não joga na primeira fila. Si hoc legere scis nimium Eruditionis habesTrade the Markets, por John Carter Juntou-se a fevereiro de 2006 Status: Membro 313 Posts Bem-vindo ao CD-ROM das Lições de Negociação do Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Meu nome é John Carter e eu tenho negociado ativamente por 17 anos, desde que eu era Um segundo ano em alta sc Hool, e em tempo integral desde 1996. Eu sou presidente dos mercados comerciais Trade the Markets, Inc.. Uma empresa de informação de mercados financeiros que funduei em 1999. Eu também sou um CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) e princípio da Razor Trading, uma empresa de gerenciamento de dinheiro. As escolhas diárias dos boletins que escrevo todos os dias são negociadas automaticamente para clientes em vários corretores. Em outras palavras, eu faço minha vida comercial. Eu encontrei o DOT de mini-tamanho do CBOT para ser um excelente contrato de futuros para o comércio, especialmente para pessoas que estão apenas começando a negociar futuros. Ao começar, quero dizer alguém que tenha negociado ativamente por menos de cinco anos. Dito isto, estou procurando mais e mais CTAs e gerentes de dinheiro aproveitando todos os benefícios que o CBOT de tamanho reduzido Dow tem para oferecer. O volume é muito quotthickquot, o que significa que grandes encomendas podem ser colocadas com deslizamento mínimo, e também significa que um comerciante pode entrar e sair desse contrato de forma rápida e eficiente. Além disso, eu gosto de usar as opções Dow de tamanho mini CBOT para se posicionar para movimentos de quotswingquot de mercado maiores. Estou também encontrando muitas oportunidades comerciais com o CBOT eletrônico 100% lançado recentemente, eletronicamente negociado 100 oz. Ouro e 5.000 oz. Contratos de prata, bem como as opções agora disponíveis nesses contratos. E é claro que existem algumas peças bonitas disponíveis em um dos meus antigos favoritos, os futuros da CBOT 30-Year Bond. Estarei a discutir peças específicas em todos estes mercados nestas lições comerciais. Eu tive a oportunidade de trabalhar com muitos comerciantes, e descobri que muitos deles vivem em um estado de fluxo constante, preso entre dois mundos que combinam o melhor e o pior que a negociação tem para oferecer. Por um lado, os comerciantes individuais podem entrar e sair dos mercados com facilidade e eficiência, os fundos maiores só podem sonhar. Os comerciantes têm a liberdade de criar nichos específicos para si mesmos que um enorme fundo de pensão nunca poderia conseguir ou duplicar. No entanto, com tanta liberdade vem um preço: os mercados não podem proteger um comerciante de si mesmo. Um comerciante individual, ao contrário de um gestor de fundos, é sem supervisão e tem a liberdade de atuar sem controle da maneira que eles escolherem. Esta liberdade geralmente reforça os maus hábitos, e o resultado líquido é um mercado que se move e prospera de forma a evitar que pessoas com a maior quantidade possível ganhem consistentemente dinheiro. É por isso que é imperativo que um comerciante encontre um grupo de configurações de alta probabilidade a seguir. Uma vez que as configurações são descobertas, é então até o comerciante ter a disciplina para seguir um conjunto específico de regras para entradas e saídas. Os comerciantes que fazem isso têm uma vantagem sobre todos os outros, e uma maior probabilidade de sucesso. Os comerciantes que têm baixa probabilidade de sucesso geralmente dependem de seus próprios sentimentos intestinais para gerenciar uma posição. A linha inferior é que os comerciantes que desenvolveram um conjunto de regras para negociar têm uma chance de fazer isso a tempo inteiro para se viver. Aqueles que não se preocupam em desenvolver um conjunto de regras tornam-se carne fresca para o resto de nós. Não deve ser surpreendente saber que eu aprendi tudo isso com o melhor professor que o mercado tem para oferecer: grande dor e sofrimento. Meu pai, um corretor com Morgan Stanley, me fez começar a negociar opções quando eu era estudante de segundo ano no ensino médio. Eu continuava a negociar ativamente no ensino médio e na faculdade. Eu rapidamente desenvolvi uma abordagem muito consistente para o meu comércio: eu rotineiramente transformaria uma conta de 10.000 em cinco ou baixos seis números ao longo de um ano. Eu então me compraria um item de aluguel e um par de gizmos agradáveis. Então eu me sentaria e decidiria quais outras coisas maiores e melhores que eu queria comprar. Uma vez que eu percebi isso, eu voltaria a negociar. Armado com essas visões de quotbigger e coisas melhores, eu iria mergulhar de volta aos mercados. Uma coisa peculiar aconteceria comigo: eu tenderia a devolver o resto da minha conta comercial em menos de um mês, e eu teria que começar de novo do zero. Isso aconteceu não uma vez, mas três vezes. O comércio mais memorável aconteceu logo na faculdade, quando consegui devolver a maior parte de uma conta comercial de 150.000 em menos de uma semana (isso é o que acontece quando compra 200 OEX Ponts em 7,20 e vendê-las uma semana depois por 75 centavos) . Felizmente, eu tinha bastante imóveis neste momento que eu poderia vender uma das propriedades para aumentar uma nova participação comercial. Isso fez com que eu continuasse com a busca de comerciantes do quotthe. Eu joguei todos os meus indicadores e comecei com um gráfico limpo. Eu visitei com outros comerciantes, aqueles que tiveram sucesso fazendo isso há mais de 20 anos, através de muitas condições de mercado diferentes. O que me impressionou ao visitar seus escritórios é que todos tinham sistemas muito simples, mas onde eles se destacaram estavam em sua metodologia de negociação. Durante essas visitas, houve duas coisas que me bateram: você pode conhecer um mercado melhor do que qualquer outro comerciante vivo, mas se você aplicar a metodologia de negociação incorreta nesse mercado, perderá dinheiro. Você pode saber mais sobre análise técnica do que qualquer outro comerciante vivo, mas se você estiver negociando o mercado errado para sua personalidade, você perderá dinheiro. Este foi um verdadeiro abridor de olho em ambos os aspectos, e descobri que o CBOT de tamanho reduzido Dow é um ótimo mercado para trocar por personalidades de muitos povos. Isso é algo sobre o qual falarei mais sobre isso. Havia algo mais sobre essas visitas que também tocavam um sino comigo. Demorou um tempo para descobrir, mas finalmente entendi: sempre que me concentrei nas configurações e não nos resultados, eu fiz tudo bem. Sempre que me concentrei nos resultados e não nas configurações, fui morto. Por que é isso? Uma vez que eu coloquei minhas mãos em uma conta de negociação de tamanho decente, eu começaria a pensar em coisas como, querendo transformar essa conta em um milhão de dólares. Em vez de se concentrar nas configurações, eu me concentraria em fazer um milhão Dólares. Isso me levou a pular os hábitos comerciais que arruinam todos os comerciantes: apostando tudo em um comércio, não usando uma parada, porque o quot de comércio para se exercitar e se concentrar em fazer um milhão de dólares em vez da configuração comercial. Uma vez que percebi isso, comecei a fazer duas coisas de forma diferente: primeiro, comecei a tirar lucros da minha conta de negociação no final de cada semana. Isso me manteve focado em produzir uma renda estável, ao contrário de fazer uma grande matança. Em segundo lugar, comecei uma competição entre as várias configurações que usei. Desta forma, eu poderia medir o desempenho de cada uma das minhas configurações ao final de cada mês. As configurações que ganharam dinheiro, eu continuava usando. As configurações que perderam dinheiro, eu despejei. Isso foi incrivelmente importante para minha negociação. A única maneira pela qual eu poderia continuar com a minha competição era executar minhas configurações de comércio da mesma forma, cada vez. Sempre que eu me desviasse de uma configuração padrão, gostaria de marcar isso no meu jornal comercial como um comércio de preços razoáveis. Eu acompanhei o desempenho nestes também. Depois de cerca de seis meses de rastrear meus negócios de impulso (uow, esse mercado está indo mais alto, eu tenho que entrar), percebi que eles não estavam me fazendo dinheiro. Despedi meu impulso de comércio e aprendi a ficar com minhas configurações. Uma vez que isso começou a funcionar de forma consistente, comecei a me concentrar no comércio a tempo inteiro, e eu não olhei para trás. Uma grande parte da minha transição foi mental e desenvolveu o que eu chamo de um estado de espírito quotprofessional, algo sobre o qual falarei mais na seção 6. Essas lições de negociação foram criadas para o comerciante ativo e é uma coleção de estratégias apresentadas em ambos escritos Formulário e através de vídeos que eu atualmente uso na minha própria negociação. Eu discuto os níveis exatos de entrada, saída e parada de perda para todas essas configurações. Os comerciantes do dia que utilizam este CD-ROM aprenderão por que se basear apenas em indicadores é um jogo perdedor, descobrir estratégias específicas para entrar em um comércio cedo e aprender as diferenças de saber quando fazer a fiança e saber quando aguentar o passeio. Os comerciantes Swing aprenderão a deixar de lado seus preconceitos e deixar o comércio levá-los quando a ação de preço confirmar que seria uma boa jogada para fazê-lo. Embora este CD-ROM seja dirigido a comerciantes em tempo integral, há configurações ao longo deste guia que irão funcionar para pessoas que trabalham em tempo integral e só podem negociar a tempo parcial. Isto é o que eu fiz há vários anos, e isso tem vantagens se feito corretamente. Minhas estratégias de negociação intradiárias favoritas são utilizadas principalmente nos futuros do Dow de mini-tamanho CBOT. No entanto, eu também tenho algumas estratégias favoritas que utilizo para CBOT Electronic 100 oz. Ouro e 5.000 oz. Futuros de prata, bem como o CBOT U. S. 30-year Treasury Bond. Nessas aulas de negociação, vou passar algum tempo discutindo os mercados de futuros e como eles funcionam. Isto é para iniciantes que nunca negociaram futuros - minha abordagem tirará o mistério deles. A partir daí, falarei sobre por que prefiro comercializar o Dow sobre tamanho reduzido CBOT, E-mini SampP e o E-mini Nasdaq. Após esta seção, falarei sobre minhas principais estratégias de negociação intradía e swing. Espero que esse conhecimento ajude a melhorar o seu próprio programa de negociação da mesma maneira que melhorou o meu. O comércio é a profissão mais enganosa do mundo. Uma pessoa não pode caminhar até um aeroporto, pular em um 747 e descer a pista sem treinamento prévio. No entanto, as pessoas abrirão rotineiramente uma conta e começarão a negociar sem qualquer orientação. Para mim, a maior diferença na minha negociação ocorreu quando eu aprendi a ignorar o meu cérebro e apenas me concentrar em um punhado de boas configurações. Uma vez que eu aprendi as configurações, o próximo desafio era ter a disciplina para segui-los da mesma maneira, cada vez. Eu fiz isso registrando minha atividade comercial e focando os resultados para cada configuração. Embora eu não consiga suportar seu ombro e ajudá-lo com sua disciplina, posso mostrar-lhe as configurações que eu uso para trocar a vida. Se você não estiver familiarizado com o mercado de futuros, lembre-se de ler a próxima seção (Seção 2) sobre o funcionamento dos mercados futuros. Caso contrário, você pode pular diretamente nas configurações. Vamos começar. Registado em fevereiro de 2006 Status: Membro 313 Posts Esta é a pergunta que eu recebo mais frequentemente por outros comerciantes que não estão familiarizados com os mercados de futuros. Eu comecei como comerciante de ações e opções, então eu sei o que você está pensando. Eles são assustadores, certo. Contudo, na minha experiência, uma vez que você entende e depois negocia futuros, você nunca volta às ações. Pense nisso como um bom desafio que o ajudará a entender melhor os mercados de futuros. Isso não é de modo algum compreensível. Há livros inteiros escritos sobre o assunto. No entanto, se você negociou apenas ações, os mercados futuros são provavelmente um mistério e talvez até um pouco ameaçador. No entanto, se você já aprendeu a importância da gestão rigorosa do dinheiro, você realmente apreciará o que a negociação de futuros tem para oferecer. Normalmente, uma vez que as pessoas tentam negociar futuros, eles simplesmente param de negociar ações. A facilidade de entrada nos lados longo e curto e a capacidade de se concentrar em alguns mercados em vez de centenas de ações os torna uma mudança refrescante para o mundo dos estoques. Aqui é como eles funcionam: primeiro, existem muitos tipos de contratos de futuros. Você pode trocar qualquer coisa do cobre ao café, dos índices de estoque à prata, ou do Carne de porco ao Palladium. Não se preocupe com a maioria destes por enquanto. Em algum momento, depois de se sentir confortável com o comércio de um punhado destes, você pode querer olhar para mais deles. Mas eu conheço muitos comerciantes que trocaram um mercado por todas as suas vidas comerciais e estão bastante bem, obrigado. Estes são os principais mercados de futuros que eu sigo: CBOT mini-tamanho Dow (YM) E-mini SampP (ES) E-mini Nasdaq (NQ) de tamanho completo 100 oz. Ouro (ZG) de tamanho completo 5.000 oz. Silver (ZI) 30-year US Treasury Bond (ZB) Note que alguns destes são quotminiquotot e alguns deles são quotfull-size. quot Existem contratos completos no Dow (DJ), SampP 500 (SP) e Nasdaq (ND), mas estes são comercializados em poços e eu prefiro trocar os contratos eletrônicos quotminiquotais menores. Por causa da transparência e imediatismo da negociação eletrônica. O novo tamanho completo de 100 oz. O ouro e os contratos eletrônicos de prata de 5.000 onças são uma mudança refrescante dos antigos contratos de ouro negociado em ouro (GC) e Prata (SI). Mais uma vez, eu prefiro trocar a versão eletrônica desses contratos por meio das versões comercializadas. Existem também os contratos eletrônicos CBOT de ouro pequeno (YG) e mini-tamanho Silver (YI) que são bons para o comércio. O fato de a CBOT possuir futuros de ouro e prata de tamanho completo e simples significa que você tem a opção de negociar o contrato mais apropriado para o tamanho da sua conta. O importante a lembrar para o comerciante do piso fora (como no comércio) é concentrar-se em contratos eletrônicos em vez de contratos negociados com fossa. Os enchimentos eletrônicos são instantâneos e os mercados são totalmente transparentes, nivelando o campo de jogo para todos os participantes. Além disso, a tendência do volume parece estar fluindo para fora dos contratos do poço e nos contratos eletrônicos. A eletrônica é onde a ação é, e é aí que você quer negociar. Para obter gráficos nos contratos acima, você precisará dizer ao seu fornecedor de cotações que deseja adicionar cotações do CME (para o ES e NQ) eo CBOT (para o Dow, Bonds, Gold e Silver). O produto de dados CBOT Advantage, CBOTs oferece uma prova gratuita de duas semanas para cotações e gráficos que você pode usar para verificar os dois mercados sem baixar o dinheiro. Por sinal, a palavra quotE-miniquot é marcada pela CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), e é por isso que você vê quotmini-sized Dowquot em vez de quotE-mini Dowquot porque ele se dedica ao CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade), que é Uma troca diferente. Embora eu siga YM, ES e NQ, eu prefiro a negociação YM. Vou falar sobre por que eu prefiro negociá-lo na próxima seção. Aqui está um vídeo que mostra como encontrar informações adicionais sobre os contratos de futuros que deseja negociar. Isso irá ajudá-lo a saltar rã antes de qualquer outro comerciante de início. Pontos-chave: como os futuros funcionam Primeiro, quando você compra um contrato de futuros, você não está fazendo compras fisicamente. Esta é simplesmente uma forma de participar do movimento de preços do mercado de sua escolha. Se você acha que um mercado vai mover 10 pontos, você pode comprar um contrato de futuros, longo ou curto, e ganhar dinheiro em movimento se ele for em sua direção. Além disso, se você possui um contrato de futuros do índice de ações que expira, você não vai conseguir um monte de certificados de ações descartados na sua porta. O contrato expirado será convertido em dinheiro, e você verá o dinheiro em sua conta. Para movimento de preço: se você tiver 1 contrato no E-mini SampP, e ele move 1 ponto (ou seja, de 1032,75 a 1033,75) que se traduz em 50 em seus lucros e perdas (PampL). Para o Nasdaq E-mini, um movimento de 1 ponto equivale a 20. Para o Dow de mini-tamanho CBOT, um movimento de 1 ponto é 5,00. Então, se você comprar 3 SampPs, e você obtém 10 pontos, isso é 50 x 10 pontos x 3 contratos 1500,00. Para o Nasdaq e o Dow, é o mesmo, exceto que você usaria 20 por ponto no Nasdaq e 5,00 por ponto no CBOT Mini-sized Dow. A Figura 2.1 mostra um CBOT de tamanho mini Dow com 10 contratos. No gráfico acima, um movimento de 27 pontos no DOT CBOT de mini-tamanho com 10 contratos é 1350,00. Claro, isso vai em ambos os aspectos, de modo que a gestão do dinheiro é a chave absoluta para futuros de negociação. É imperativo que você conheça sua parada antes de começar, e você consegue isso, não importa o que. No mercado de futuros, esperar e rezar pode levar a uma ruína. No entanto, a coisa legal sobre os futuros é que eles são tão rápidos e que o preenchimento é tão limpo que você pode ficar parado, então alguns segundos depois você está de volta. Você não pode ter medo de sofrer pequenas perdas, período. Reentra é apenas uma comissão fora. Os contratos eletrônicos foram criados especificamente para comerciantes: são super liquidos e os enchimentos são instantâneos. Se você acha que o mercado vai se desfazer, você pode comprar um estoque como o INTC e vê-lo sentar-se lá enquanto o mercado gire sem você. Você estava certo no mercado, mas sua escolha de ações não se moveu com o mercado. Com o CBOT mini-sized Dow futuros você está negociando o mercado. É o que é. Não há jogos. Você pode reduzir um downtick. Isso faz uma grande diferença ao tentar se preencher durante uma quebra. Se você reduzir o KLAC no mercado em uma quebra, você não pode ser preenchido por 20 centavos até que ele tenha um aumento. Se você reduzir os quotes de futuros no mercado em uma quebra, você obtém um preenchimento rápido ao preço de mercado atual. Com estoques, você teve quotbullets por um tempo onde você poderia configurar isso com seu corretor e curtir um estoque em um downtick. Infelizmente, estes foram recentemente removidos. Eu costumava ser um grande comerciante de opções OEX para negociações diárias. Depois de negociar futuros, parei de trocar opções de OEX. Os spreads e o prémio das opções agora são ridículos. Onde mais você pode estar morto diretamente em uma jogada intradiária e ainda perder dinheiro O mercado de opções de OEX Embora eu use opções para negociação de swing, eu não iria trocá-las com um pólo de 10 pés. Não quando os futuros Dow mini-tamanho CBOT são tão limpos e eficientes. Você pode fazer a maioria dos seus negócios no mercado e obter excelentes preenchimentos, ao contrário dos estoques e, especialmente, das opções diferentes. Para estoques, você precisa de um comércio de 25 mil. Para futuros você pode abrir uma conta com 5.000 (ou menos) e comércio de dia. Não há quotday tradingquot regras ou classificações. Para comprar um dos contratos de futuros discutidos nessas aulas de negociação, você precisa de cerca de 2.000 em sua conta. Isso varia de intermediário, e pode ser menor, mas esta é uma média. Este quotdepositquot dinheiro exigido por um corretor antes que você possa começar a negociar é chamado de margem, e você pode pensar nisso como colocar um adiantamento 3 em uma casa. Então, se você tiver uma conta de 10.000, você pode comprar 5 contratos, e às vezes mais usando taxas de margem intradiárias mais baixas. No entanto, para fins de gerenciamento de dinheiro, recomendo sinceramente pensar sobre quantos contratos você troca em sua conta. Esta é uma parte crítica do seu plano de negociação. Só porque você pode trocar 5 contratos em uma conta de 10.000 não significa que você normalmente deveria negociar 1 contrato por cada 10.000 a 15.000 que está na minha conta. Desta forma, sua conta balança não será tão grave, e você poderá negociar com uma cabeça de nível. Um comerciante amigo manda comercializar um contrato por cada 50.000 em sua conta. Ele ganha dinheiro e nunca é estressado. Para contas gerenciadas, costumo negociar 1 contrato por cada 25.000 na conta. Por outro lado, eu vi programas que dizem ter uma conta de 5.000 e negociar 5 contratos e, ao fazê-lo, você pode fazer seis números por ano. Isso é louco e você seria melhor doar esse 5.000 para caridade, porque você vai perder tudo negociando dessa forma. Existem poucas garantias na indústria de futuros, mas perder toda a sua negociação de dinheiro com essa margem de quotmaxed é a única aposta certa disponível hoje. Existem agora futuros sobre ações. O uso de Single Stock Futures negociado nos EUA no OneChicago como negócios de swing em combinação com futuros de índice é uma ótima maneira de negociar e proteger suas apostas. Embora alguns dos símbolos tenham um volume real baixo, o volume do quotreal é baseado no estoque subjacente. Se você quiser comprar 100 contratos (1 contrato com 100 ações) e você colocou uma ordem limite entre a oferta e a oferta, você receberá um preenchimento quase instantâneo. Com os futuros, no final do ano você não precisa listar cada comércio de futuros individuais, como você faz ações para sua declaração de imposto nos EUA. Você obtém um formulário 1099 do seu corretor com o seu lucro ou perda total para o ano. Tudo o que você coloca na sua declaração de imposto é esse número no 1099. Isso é muito mais fácil e muito menos demorado do que listar todos os negócios, como você tem que ver com ações. E as boas notícias são impostos Para as ações, você tem que mantê-las ao longo de um ano para se classificar na taxa de rendimento do termo quotlong mais barata. Para futuros, você obtém um 1099 que diz, por exemplo, 20 mil ganhos para o ano. Destes, 60 do dinheiro são tratados como ganhos a longo prazo (taxa de imposto mais baixa) e 40 na taxa de curto prazo. Esta é a regra quot6040quot. Esta regra é válida mesmo se você for plano no final de cada dia de negociação. Você pode negociar futuros em seu IRA. Isso significa que você pode curtir ações em seu IRA (Single Stock Futures) ou os índices, que você não tem permissão para fazer em um IRA regular. Para configurar o IRA para negociação de futuros, você precisa primeiro passar por uma Trust Company criada especificamente para fazer isso. What you then do is open an account with the Trust Company, and then they will wire the funds to your futures broker. This way it stays classified as an IRA and you dont have to pay taxes on any gains. Not every futures broker is experienced with this. If you are interested in doing this, be sure to work with a broker that has done this before. It is one way to bring diversification to a portion of your retirement funds. Each stock index futures vehicle has four contracts that are traded each year: March (H), June (M), September (U) and December (Z). You will want to trade the closest month, as that is where the volume is concentrated. For example, if today is February 15, 2005, then the closest month is the March 2005 contract. To get a quote for the March 2005 contract on the CBOT mini-sized Dow, you would enter in the symbol, month and year. In this case, that would be YM (symbol), H (Month March), 05 (Year 2005). The full symbol would be YMH05. This is for TradeStation. For Esignal it would be YM H5. Each quote service is a little different. When one contract expires, you just start trading the next contract out. TIP: The stock index futures expire the same day as options expiration, on the third Friday of the month they are being traded in. However, you will want to start trading the next month out the week before expiration, as all of the volume will switch to the next month on Thursday of the preceding week. Bonds actually switch three weeks early. Each contract is a little different. If you arent sure, just ask your broker, write it down and put it next to your PC (or email CBOT or CME to find out what you need to know, if its not already listed on their websites). This way you will never mess this up. Also, because these are futures contracts expiring at different dates in the future, there is always a price difference between two contracts based on the markets expectation of where each contract will settle. While the March 2005 contract might say 10686 for the CBOT mini-sized Dow, the June contract might say something like 10694. Also note there is usually a 10 to 20 point different between the CBOT mini-sized Dow futures price and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageltsupgtSMltsupgt cash price. There is a very complicated explanation for this involving quotfair valuequot and quotfuture price projectsquot and yada, yada, yada. Bigger picture this it is just something to be aware of. Keep this in mind as you are switching contracts and calculating pivots. Thats the basics. The key is to just get comfortable with your futures broker layout. Do some quotpaper tradesquot on their simulator to get a feel of the system, and when you start out, just trade one contract to get a feel of how it works. You will make mistakes, and a mistake on 1 lot is a lot cheaper than a mistake on 10 lots or more. If you have never used a futures broker before, be sure to talk to other traders to check out rates, levels of service, and so forth. If you want some more quotFutures 101quot reading, the CBOT has a publication called quotTrading In Futures - An Introductionquot that you can read online or order for free, plus theres an online interactive tutorial available in the education area of cbot . Lets now take a look at why the CBOT mini-sized Dow is my favorite futures contract to trade. Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts Now that we have covered Futures 101, lets take a look at why I prefer to trade the CBOT mini-sized Dow (YM) over the ES or NQ, and, for that matter, individual stocks and options. In its simplest form, the markets rise on a day-to-day basis because current demand for stocks exceeds current supply. This has nothing to do with being in a secular bear market, a cyclical bull market, high PE ratios or Maria Bartiromos choice of a necklace. This has everything to do with what traders are willing to pay for a stock or market today . It doesnt matter if demand is falsely created by a hedge fund quottaking the streetquot (buying large amounts of a single stock to drain a market maker of its inventory, forcing them to buy it back at a higher price). Or a squeeze that whacks shorts and forces them to cover, or a rumor that a biotech stock is being cornered by Martha Stewart. Demand is demand and that is what drives markets higher. The inverse is equally true: If there is too much supply in the market, prices will fall. Although supply and demand can be more difficult to measure with a single stock, it is very easy to measure with a popular index such as the DowltsupgtSMltsupgt. This is why I feel strongly that one of the best contracts out there to trade for both beginning and professional traders is the Chicago Board of Trades mini-sized Dow futures contract. The specific reasons are as follows: Bang for the Buck For disciplined traders who use live stops, the leverage in trading CBOT mini-sized Dow futures over stocks is a huge plus. Better Spreads than the E-mini SampP and E-mini Nasdaq The CBOT mini-sized Dow has the same specifications as the popular E-mini SampP contract: 1 point in the E-mini SampP about 10 points in the mini-sized CBOT Dow 1 point in the E-mini SampP 50 10 points in the CBOT mini-sized Dow 50 Figure 3.1 shows movement in the Dow and SampP over the exact same time frame. The Dow has moved 13 points lower (from the high at point 1 to the low at point 2), and during this same time, the SampP has moved 1.5 points lower. The Dow moved lower in thirteen 1 point increments. However, the SampP made a similar move in 6 quarter point increments. A quarter point on the SampP about 2.5 points on the Dow. This is a huge different in the spread The key here is that a trader will get picked off on stop runs less frequently if he or she uses the CBOT mini-sized Dow over the E-mini SampP. Why is this Again, the E-mini SampP moves 1 point in 4 quarter point increments. The CBOT mini-sized Dow will move an equivalent 10 points in ten 1 point increments, giving the trader six extra places to place a stop or target. This is a huge advantage over trading the E-mini SampP and will save a trader a lot of money over the course of a trading career. By trading the CBOT mini-sized Dow, the trader is essentially cutting the spread by 60 percent. That money goes straight into the traders pocket. In addition, due to the spread, you will get your stops picked off more in trading the SampPs on stops that are placed equivalently on YM. I will show specific examples of this in Section 5. The spread is even worse in the NQ. Whereas the SampPs will move 1 point in 4 quarter point jumps, the Nasdaq will move the same 1 point in 2 half point jumps. This goes back to what I talked about earlier in quottrading the right market for your personality or trading method. quot My Multi-Pivot system (one of the strategies I will talk about) works good on the SampPs, but it works great on the CBOT mini-sized Dow, because of the way the market is quotbuiltquot and the way it moves. Liquidity Although perfect for the smaller retail trader, the CBOT mini-sized Dow has caught fire and now has the liquidity to move size, chalking up daily trading volume of well over 100,000 contracts per day. In trading, volume begets volume, and YM will continue to expand even more as traders, commodity trading advisors and managed funds take advantage of the trading advantages for this contract. Figure 3.2 shows weekly volume growth in the CBOT mini-sized Dow since its inception. Keeping on the Path of Least Resistance A trader can watch the 30 stocks in the Dow to get a very good idea of how the index is acting or is going to act. I like to place all 30 Dow stocks in a window and have them automatically sorted from strongest to weakest each day on a Net Change basis. Getting a feel for all 500 stocks in the SampP 500 at a glance is as impossible. Figure 3.3 shows all 30 Dow Stocks sorted by the Net change. With this I can glance at it and see that 22 out of the 30 of the stocks are red (down on the day). This filter gives me a clean, easy downward or upward bias to the market as I can watch more stocks going red, or going green, as the markets start to fall apart or try to improve. If a trader currently is in an individual stock, he can have all kinds of outside influences move the price. Maybe insiders are dumping their own stock. Maybe an analyst has just issued an upgrade while his trading department is dumping shares off to an unsuspecting public. Maybe the company is giving positive forward guidance as its last hope to stave off bankruptcy proceedings. The factors affecting an individual stock are endless. However, when investors in general want to sell stocks, the Dow reacts by heading south. If they want to buy, the Dow spurts green. The quotDow effectquot encompasses individual investors, hedge funds, program traders and arbitrage traders. In addition, the Dow moves actively in all buy and sell programs. Supply and demand at its finest - this is what makes the CBOT mini-sized Dow futures contract such a beautiful instrument to trade. This, combined with the much tighter spreaders than the ES or NQ contract, make it the best contract to trade for intraday trading. Now that we have covered how futures work, and why I like to trade the CBOT mini-sized Dow, section 4 will discuss why you should diversify your trading into precious metals and bonds, and then well start looking at my trading strategy. Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts There is one very good reason to know how the Gold, Silver and Bond markets work, and that reason can be summed up in one word: OPPORTUNITY. Although the Dow is one of my favorite markets to trade, there are plenty of times when it is stuck in a trading range, going nowhere. As you can see in the chart below, while the Dow was stuck in a trading range over a period of four months in 2004, Gold, Silver and Bonds all had nice, very tradeable up trends. Although the chart below is based on a daily timeframe over the course of nearly half a year, the same thing happens on all time frames, from the 1 minute chart to the weekly chart. While one market is chopping, another market is trending. Traders have the best opportunity to make money in markets that are trending. By watching all four markets, you can rotate your trades into the markets that have the best trends, and stay out of the markets that are chopping around. Gold: Trading Where the Action Is By trading gold, you will be in good company. No other market in the world has the universal appeal of the gold market. Durante séculos, o ouro tem sido cobiçado por sua mistura única de raridade, beleza e quase indestrutível. Nations have embraced gold as a store of wealth and a medium of international exchange, and individuals have sought to possess gold as insurance against the daily fluctuations of paper money. Gold is also a vital industrial metal, as it is an excellent conductor of electricity, is extremely resistant to corrosion, and is one of the most chemically stable of the elements, making it critically important in electronics and other high-tech applications. Thats all well and good, right But as a trader, all I really care about is if the market in question provides good trading opportunities. Over the last several years gold has become a great market to trade with plenty of volatility and trending price action. One of the biggest questions I get regarding these other markets is a simple, yet essential question: How do they work in regards to my PampL If I buy gold and it goes up 4.00 an ounce, how much money did I just make Lets take a look. CBOT full-sized 100 oz. Gold Futures CBOT mini-sized 33.2 Gold Futures As you can see in the charts above, a 1.00 per ounce move in CBOT full-sized 100 oz. Gold results in a 100.00 per point per contract move, while a 1.00 per ounce move in CBOT mini-sized 33.2 oz. Gold results in a 33.20 per point per contract move on your PampL. Both contracts are great to trade, and the decision on whether or not to trade the full-sized Gold depends largely on your account size. If you are trading a smaller account (under 25,000) it is probably better to stick with the CBOT mini-sized Gold. Silver: Great Volatility Silver has attracted mans interest for thousands of years. Na antiguidade, os depósitos de prata eram abundantes sobre ou perto da superfície da Terra. As relíquias das civilizações antigas incluem jóias, artefatos religiosos e vasos de alimentos formados a partir do metal durável e maleável. In 1792, silver assumed a key role in the United States monetary system when Congress based the currency on the silver dollar, and its fixed relationship to silver. Silver was used for the nations coinage until its use was discontinued in 1965. At the turn of the century, an even more important economic function was emerging for silver, that of an industrial raw material. Today, silver is sought as a valuable and practical industrial commodity as well as an appealing investment. Os maiores usuários industriais de prata são as indústrias fotográficas, jóias e eletrônicas. Again, this is all well and good right But as a trader, can we do anything with this market The answer is a resounding yes. Later in these lessons, I will be showing examples of specific plays with silver, but for now lets make sure we understand how it works in relation to the PampL. CBOT full-sized 5000 oz. Silver Futures Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts When it comes to executing a specific setup, traders generally fall into three categories: Those that know the setup like the back of their hand, but fail to make money due to a flawed trading methodology Those that know the setup better than their spouses bad habits, but fail to make money because the setup is being used on the wrong market Those that know the setup better than the varied plot lines on Alias . but fail to make money because of poor money management The point of this, of course, is to emphasize the importance of establishing a trade setup from a three-pronged approach. In addition to the actual setup, there also needs to be a foundation from which to operate the setup. This foundation consists of the following: The trading methodology, the money management technique, and the knowledge of the best markets to trade for that particular setup. In other words, its a lot more than just quotwhats the entryquot Without this additional data, a trader is like wounded antelope in the center of a lion pride, where it is not a question of quotifquot the antelope is going to get whacked faster than a newly discovered FBI informant within the Mafia, but rather of quotwhen. quot For a trader without this three-pronged approach to their trade setups, the possibility of ruin is not a question of quotif. quot Its only a matter of quotwhen. quot I utilize 8 setups in my daily trading routine. My first, favorite, and the one that determines my trading for the rest of the day, is based on the opening gap. Each day in the market there is one opportunity that represents the lowest-risk trade available, and that is the opening gap. Gaps occur when the next days regular cash session opening price is greater or lower than the previous days regular cash session close, creating a quotgapquot in price levels on the charts, similar to that space we see each night between David Lettermans two front teeth. However, when it comes to gaps, not all markets are created equal. Gaps in quotsingle itemquot markets do not act the same as gaps in quotmulti-itemquot markets. Examples of quotsingle-itemquot markets include bonds, currencies, grains and energies. Esses mercados são compostos de um único componente, e uma notícia sobre esse componente único controla todo o mercado, em vez de apenas uma parte dele. On the other hand, a quotmulti-itemquot market such as CBOT mini-sized Dow makes a great candidate for gap plays, because there are individual components of this index that will respond differently to various news items. This means that, although the market may gap up on a news item, there will be individual stocks within the index that will either ignore the news or sell off on the news, weighing the index down and creating an opportunity for the market to fill its gap. Dow Gaps Are Best Although the Dow is the best quotgapquot market to trade, the individual components of this index do not set up consistently for these plays. Os estoques individuais são como políticos, pois todos os dias eles podem produzir um esqueleto novo do armário proverbial. Anúncios de ganhos, escândalos corporativos e ofertas de insider podem criar lacunas no preço que nunca são preenchidas. Due to the unpredictable nature of the individual stock, they make poor candidates for gap fills. Along these same lines, the Nasdaq market is heavily weighted towards technology, and gaps in price can take longer to fill as the technology news of the day plays out. In addition, the SampP 500 has such a broad array of stocks, that it can make it more difficult to get a clean gap fill. In the end, the Dow represents a small group of large, individual stocks from different industries, and it is therefore the best market to play when it comes to gaps. The magic of gaps is that they are like an open window, and like all windows, at some point they are going to be closed. The key, then, is to be able to accurately predict when the days gap (window) is going to be filled (closed). What is as important as analyzing the gap itself is analyzing the market conditions that produce the gap. The reason for the gap is immaterial. What matters is the pre-market volume. For example, a professional gap with high pre-market volume can take weeks to get filled. Much more common are gaps that are news reactions or fishing expeditions. Estes são menores na natureza, preencher rapidamente e podem ser desbotados regularmente. The question, then, is if I ignore the reason for the gap, what is it that Im looking for that determines whether or not I will take the setup The key action I am watching is the pre-market volume in a specific set of cash stocks. I particularly like to watch KLAC, MXIM, NVLS, and AMAT. What Im looking for is the pre-market volume in these stocks as of 9:20 a. m. Eastern time, 10 minutes before the regular cash session open. If these stocks are trading under 30,000 shares each at this time, the gap (up or down) has an 85 chance of filling that same day. However, if it jumps up to 50,000 shares each, the gap only has about a 60 chance of filling that same day. On these particular days, the midpoint of the gap has an 85 chance of being hit, so I do take this into account on these particular days. Finally, if the pre market volume jumps to over 70,000 shares each, the chances of the gap filling that same day drop to 30. Why does this work Think about it when comparing a car driving on an empty tank of gas versus a full tank of gas. If the market is really set up to move, then there will be real volume coming into the cash market. If the market is just setting up a head fake, then the volume in the cash market will be low, as there wont be any conviction in the move. Ignore the news and follow the money. Here is how I use this information to manage my trades: lttable borderquot1quot cellpaddingquot0quot cellspacingquot0quot widthquot631quotgt lttbodygt lttrgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot257quotgt Pre-Market Volume in Key Stocks lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot112quotgt lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot262quotgt lttdgt lttrgt lttrgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot257quotgt Less Than 30,000 lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot112quotgt Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts Most beginning traders are taught by their brokers to use 3:1 risk reward ratios, risking one point to get three points. As the traders wonder why they always get stopped out just before the market turns, their broker is tallying up commissions generated on the day. Em geral, paradas mais largas produzem mais negócios vencedores. A chave com paradas mais largas, é claro, é apenas jogar configurações que tenham uma chance maior de 80% de ganhar. The gap play Im describing, with the parameters that I use, has a greater than 80 percent chance of winning. What is important to remember for gap plays is that an active program of trailing stops will negatively affect your winloss ratio. Uma vez que os parâmetros são definidos, a melhor coisa que um comerciante pode fazer é sair e deixar as ordens fazerem o trabalho. Although tweaking is a good thing to do when giving a car a tune up, tweaking the parameters of a gap trade will not work. One important thing to remember: If 80 percent of these plays win, that means 20percent of them lose. I actually like losing trades for one main reasonthis leaves an quotopen gapquot in the markets. An open gap is like a magnet, and there is an 80 percent chance that the markets will fill than gap within 10 trading days. Whenever the markets leave an open gap, I mark that level on a Post-It Note and place it on my computer. Lets take a look at an example in this next video. Here is a link that will launch a four fminute video on your screen. In it you will hear me talk about gaps, with a few example plays. The example of that last 62 point gap in the video you just watched is my favorite type of gap. I called it the quotBahamas Gapquot as it represents a low-stress trade. The gap fills quickly and is a pleasing move in which to participate. It should be noted that gaps of under 10 Dow points are not worth playing. Lets take a look in more detail at the video you just watched. As Ive already said, I always love it when you have these quotopen windowsquot out there in the markets. As you saw in the last video, they act as black holes, eventually sucking prices back to their gapping levels. You always want to be conscious of where the open gaps are located, and I like to use a chart like the one posted below to give me a continuous visual reference. As you can see, the gaps will come back and get filled at some point. Now, lets take another look at the chart I used in the video: This chart was traded using a 100,000 account, and utilizing 9 contracts for a full position. On August 18, we gapped up a modest 44 points in the Dow prior to some economic numbers, as seen in the prior video. I short at the open. Nós reagimos, vendemos os números econômicos e depois disparamos mais alto uma vez que os números foram liberados. Eu tive uma parada de 66 pontos, e os mercados se recuperaram apenas por esse nível, produzindo uma perda de 330 por contrato, ou 2.970. I head into the next trading day knowing there is now a quotblack holequot gap below. Na verdade, eu posso ouvir o som de sucção. The next day we have a modest low volume 13 point gap higher that works out quickly, for 65 per contract (585). The day after, we get a nice 52 point gap lower that takes a few hours to fill, but creates few headaches, for 260 per contract (2,340). The next day we get a 44 point gap higher that comes close to our stop but eventually fills the gap for 255 per contract (2,295). Finally on August 22 we get the quotsucker gapquot when Intel announces quotcautious upside earnings revisions. quot The market explodes and gaps up 62 points, right into key resistance. I short the gap, as the pre-market volume is again low. Seis barras depois, meu alvo é atingido por 62 pontos ou 310 por contrato (2.790). The sucking sound of the black hole below is getting louder . Durante a sessão da tarde, obtemos uma consolidação de bandeira de urso. I set up a quotsell stopquot at 9392 to let the market take me into a breakdown of that flag formation. I get the fill and set my stop above intraday resistance at 9455. My target is the 818 quotblack hole gapquot at 9304. The market spends the rest of the day on its hands and knees, dry heaving, trying to hold back the internal pressure. This pressure proves to be too much and the market eventually falls over. I hold my position over the weekend and Monday morning the markets quickly fill the gap for an 88-point gain or 440 per contract (3,960). These are a series of great trades, and I encourage you to watch the video again to see how they operate. Gaps are the one moment of the trading day where everyone has to show their poker hand, and this creates the single biggest advantage for the short-term trader. Compreender a psicologia por trás das lacunas é fundamental para jogá-las com sucesso diariamente. The gaps are so powerful that many traders make a nice living playing these set ups alone. A chave é saber como eles funcionam e desenvolver uma sólida metodologia e um conjunto de regras para trocá-los. After reading this article, the serious trader will have a better foundation for a plan to trade the markets successfully on a full-time basis: a proven set up to play, markets that best fit that set up and a plan of action to maximize the play. That is pretty much everything the trader needs to survive and thrive in this greatest of professions. Trading the markets is the greatest job in the world. There are no bosses offering contradictory instructions and, even better, no employees to baby sit. Each year thousands of people flock to the markets like lemmings to the sea. Yet, many fewer than that manage to avoid flinging themselves over the proverbial cliff. How does a trader break away from the herd and ease into a consistently profitable trading routine The key to staying profitable consists of sticking to the following three concepts: Staying in the Right Frame of Mind Keeping on the Path of Least Resistance Knowing What to do When Things go Wrong Staying in the Right Frame of Mind In a moment we will look at a very easy and potentially very profitable strategy to trade the CBOT CBOT mini-sized Dow. Before utilizing this or any strategy, however, a trader first must create the optimal mindset for executing trades. This is very similar to the quotchicken-and-eggquot theory: Without a professional state of mind, a trader simply cannot produce consistent profits over the long haul. In a similar vein, without that egg, the future existence of the chicken is over Being a professional is all about maintaining a state of mind, and a trader is never going to make consistent money until he or she achieves that frame of reference from which to operate. Here are five nuggets of wisdom that Ive learned over the years to help establish the right frame of mind: Professional traders focus on limiting risk and protecting capital. Amateur traders focus on how much money they can make on each trade. Professionals always take money away from amateurs. Embracing your opinion leads to losses. When a trader rationalizes a decline by saying things like, quotthey are just shaking out weak hands here, quot or quotthe market makers are just fishing for stops, quot then the trader is embracing his own opinion instead of listening to the market. This is also called quotbeing an amateurquot and leads to a one-way revolving door called financial ruin. Amateur traders turn into professional traders once they stop looking for the quotnext great technical indicatorquot and start controlling their risk on each trade. In reality, traders are not trading stocks, futures or options. They are trading other traders. Be aware of the psychology and emotions behind the person who is taking the opposite side of your trade. Professional traders actively take small losses, and they do so because they know their most important job is to protect their capital. After all, re-entry is only a commission away. Amateurs resort to hop e to save their trades. In life, hope is a powerful and positive thing. In trading, hanging onto a trade based only on hope is very similar to a trader spending the rest of his life filling holes in rotten teeth when he has no skill as a dentist. In other words, it aint pretty. Once you get in the right frame of mind, you will be in a much better position to execute trades in a professional, and therefore profitable, manner. Now lets take a look at discovering which side of the market to trade. Heres the key: Professional traders do not care about being on the short side or the long side of the market. They care about being on the right side . Keeping on the Path of Least Resistance The finely tuned art of technical analysis involves a process similar to a jury weighing the presented evidence during a trial and then deciding upon an outcome. By the same token, my final trading decisions must be backed by evidence, not by emotion. The stronger the evidence, the greater the likelihood that a specific price action may occur. By contrast, the stronger the emotion, the stronger the likelihood that a trader is about to imprint the exact high or the exact low of the day. Based on this, I use a very simple technical system to trade the CBOT mini-sized Dow futures. Before we look at this, lets take a step back and see how I view the big picture each trading day: As the above video shows, before the trading day starts, I always like to glance at the larger time frames first. The key to consistent profits is to trade on the path of least resistance. The path of least resistance starts from the larger time frames and moves down through the ranks to the smallest time frames. Think of the weekly chart as a thousand pound weight on your chest. Then think of the five-minute chart as a Two-pound weight on your chest. Which is going to create more pressure on your body It is ridiculous to try to move the two-pound dumbbell without taking into account the larger 1,000- pound weight bearing down on top of it. During the week of May 2, 2003, the weekly chart experienced an upside moving average crossover and it hasnt looked back. I dont care how many books are being published that discuss the coming doom of the world economies. I dont care how overbought we are. I dont care how many traders are flaunting their superiority in that they would never go long stocks in this environment (Bearish geniuses in 2003 were almost as common as bullish geniuses in 1999). What matters to me is this: Is the current big picture perspective one based on too much supply or too much demand This weekly chart makes it crystal clear that, as of this writing in early Jan 2005, current demand for Dow stocks continues to exceed the current supply. Sure, half of this demand is from frantic short covering, but that doesnt matter. Again, demand is demand. Período. By glancing at the charts I showed you in the video, I know to spend most of my energy focusing on the long side. I will keep any shorts I initiate on a tight leash. I will follow this procedure until this situation reverses itself and the 9 period moving average is trading below the 18 period moving average on the weekly chart. Until that happens, there isnt much point in fighting the trend. That is a losing game. For the trading day Im about to show you, I jotted down the following information based on the Weekly, Daily, and 60 minute charts I showed you in the video. This gives me an idea of where the quotheavy pressurequot is located. I use a table like this: lttable borderquot1quot cellpaddingquot0quot cellspacingquot0quotgt lttbodygt lttrgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot136quotgt lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot233quotgt Pressure Heading into the Day lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot137quotgt lttdgt lttrgt lttrgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot136quotgt lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot233quotgt lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot62quotgt lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot62quotgt lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot75quotgt lttdgt lttd valignquottopquot widthquot137quotgt lttdgt lttrgt lttbodygt lttablegt Although this system is deceptively simply, it is very clean about keeping a trader on the right side of the trend. Trades can be set up on all time frames, and there are, of course, ways to maximize this system utilizing a few other indicators. A very effective addition is the Keltner Channels with a 3.0 average true range. Keltner Channels are similar to Bollinger Bands in that they will form what looks like a moving average trading channel on your chart. With this quotchannelquot in place, a trader can get out of his position if prices hit one of the upper or lower bands of the channel, instead of waiting for the next crossover to liquidate. If I get out of a position when it hits a Keltner Channel, I still wait for the next crossover to initiate my next position. Keltner Channels are canned indicators that are available on most charting systems. Traders are notorious for tweaking systems, and that is a good quottweakquot for this system. However, it also works fine without them. The biggest mistake I see people making with this crossover system is they use stops that are too tight and they are too aggressive about trailing them. I place a 50 point stop in the YM and I dont trail it at all. Trailing a stop on this setup will almost always get you out at a bad price. Let the system do the work. When Things Go Wrong: Exchange Crashes Weve covered my first two topics, Staying in the Right Frame of Mind, and Keeping on the Path of Least Resistance. Now, lets take a look at the third, Knowing What to do When Things go Wrong. Because as sure as the sun is going to rise tomorrow, things will go wrong On Thursday, May 1, 2003, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange crashed at 11:40 a. m. Eastern time, and trading in the E-mini SampPs was halted at the 905.00 level. They were still halted at the end of the day, even though the big contracts rallied strongly to close at the 915.00 level. Globex did not reopen until the next morning. A lot of people were stuck short with E-mini SampPs during this time, including myself. What to do Many newbies froze. quotI had no idea what to do, quot said Scott Sether, a private trader from St. Paul, MN. quotIve been trading E-mini SampPs for about six months, and to be honest I was like a deer caught in the headlights. My broker told me he would keep me posted on when they would reopen. All I know is I couldnt get out of my trade until the next morning. I was short ten contracts and I lost 6,500.quot Many traders were stuck short this day. The floor traders knew this. How did they react Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. Imagine the floor traders as a bunch of sea gulls. Then picture the traders who were stuck short as a recently unguarded sack lunch on the beach. Get the picture When the CME finally reopened the next morning, traders who were stuck short ended up having to swallow some sizeable losses. The key, of course, is for traders to know about their available choices if something like this occurs in the future. In this instance, Scott could have hedged by going long two of the big SampP contracts. However, it turned out that his broker is one of the many quote-brokersquot out there that only trades electronic futures and does not trade any open outcry products. Scratch that idea. In addition, if a trader was short only a couple of E-mini SampPs, it would not have been appropriate to hedge with the bigger contract (one big contract five minis). So what to do In this instance, Scott could have gone long the CBOT mini-sized Dow, which is what I did. Once I was alerted to the trading halt, I immediately went long an equivalent number of CBOT mini-sized Dow contracts on the CBOT. Once completed, because of the high correlation between the Dow and SampP, I was perfectly hedged through whenever trading would again resume, which turned out to be the next morning. When it became evident that the market was going to quotkill the shortsquot who were stuck, I continued to pile on additional contracts to my CBOT mini-sized Dow trade. Not only did I completely hedge my losses in the E-mini SampP, I made nice profits on every long CBOT mini-sized Dow I owned over and above my hedge amount. By the time the CME opened the next morning, the SampP had rallied more than 15 points. What turned out to be a disaster for the unprepared trader turned into a windfall for traders who were prepared for the worst-nightmare scenario. It is important to be aware of the different choices a trader has each day. Awareness brings empowerment and the ability to turn the inevitable glitch on an exchange into a powerful trading opportunity. There is a ton of information out there, and many traders get easily confused on what to use and how to use it properly. By getting in a professional state of mind and by focusing on trading the CBOT mini-sized Dow, a trader has the best of both worlds an easy view of the current supply and demand situation and a clean instrument with which to trade that information. This simple system will keep the trader from second guessing himself, will keep a person on the path of least resistance, and will keep losses small while allowing winners a chance to run. And thats about everything the trader needs to make a living at this greatest business in the world. Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts One of the simplest and most effective position entry techniques I use is based on what I call multi-pivot levels. The main advantage of this system is that it is price-based as opposed to indicator-based. By the time most indicators generate a buy or a sell signal, the move is already well under way. By following this price-based methodology, there are many instances where I get into a trade before the indicator-based traders, and I usually end up handing off my position just as a buy or sell signal is being generated on a stochastic or other oscillator type system. This is also a good system if you dont have time to stare at the charts all day long, or have a penchant for chasing the market higher and lower. Playing the pivots automatically creates trader discipline because the entries and exits are pre-determined before the trading day even starts. There is no big mystery or secret to the pivots. They are readily available and have been around for a long time. These are support (S) and resistance (R) levels calculated by floor traders using a simple mathematical formula. These levels became widely known and have moved off floor. Today many traders are aware of them and try to use them, but in my experience they are using them incorrectly. To add to the confusion, there are different formula versions and different time frames that are used when calculating pivots. So, to get started, lets look at what I use, which is one of the standard pivot formulas: lttable classquotnobordertableleftquot alignquotcenterquot borderquot0quot cellpaddingquot0quot cellspacingquot0quot widthquot300quotgt lttbodygt lttrgt lttd nowrapquotnowrapquot valignquotbottomquot widthquot300quotgt R3: R1 (High - Low) lttdgt lttrgt lttrgt lttd nowrapquotnowrapquot valignquotbottomquot widthquot300quotgt R2: Pivot (High - Low) lttdgt lttrgt lttrgt lttd nowrapquotnowrapquot valignquotbottomquot widthquot300quotgt R1: 2x Pivot Low lttdgt lttrgt lttrgt lttd nowrapquotnowrapquot valignquotbottomquot widthquot300quotgt PIVOT: High Low Close3 lttdgt lttrgt lttrgt lttd nowrapquotnowrapquot valignquotbottomquot widthquot300quotgt S1: 2x Pivot High lttdgt lttrgt lttrgt lttd nowrapquotnowrapquot valignquotbottomquot widthquot300quotgt S2: Pivot - (High - Low) lttdgt lttrgt lttrgt lttd nowrapquotnowrapquot valignquotbottomquot widthquot300quotgt S3: S1 - (High - Low) lttdgt lttrgt l ttbodygt lttablegt Once a trader has this formula, then the key data that is needed is the high, low and close of the previous session. For my own trading, I like to utilize 24 hours worth of data to capture the highs and lows. However, I will use settlement prices for the close, as this is the closing price that matters. Once I get this highlowclose data, I plug it into an excel spreadsheet with the formulas listed above. This information generates seven important levels for the next trading day: a central pivot, then three levels above (R1, R2, and R3) and three levels below (S1, S2 and S3). The central pivot has the most weight of the seven levels. In addition to these daily levels, I also utilize the midpoints between these levels (you can also go through and add the weekly and monthly levels to provide additional target levels). It is important to note that it is extremely rare when a stock index hits its R3 or S3 levels. This is important to know because if a market rallies to R2 or a sells off to S2, that usually ends up being the exact high or the exact low of the day. This knowledge will help temper a traders emotions and keep them on track to follow this system. This is a fade play. Im looking to buy pullbacks to pivot levels or sell rallies to pivot levels in teh direction of the prevailing trend. Trading rules for pivot buys (sells are reversed): Set up an intraday chart that shows 24-hours worth of data, so you can view any overnight highs and lows. Insert the pivots and the midpoints onto your chart. The first pivot play is done in conjunction with a price gap. If there is a price gap down, then buy a decline into the closest pivot level. If there isnt a playable gap (over 10 YM points), then wait until 9:45 a. m. Eastern time to initiate the first play. I wait for the markets to penetrate a pivot level, moving up at least halfway to the next pivot level, then I set up a bid to buy the first retracement back to the first violated pivot level. I enter my trades with limit orders only. I Place orders quotjust in front ofquot the pivot. For YM I use 3 points. For example, if you are trading the YM, and the pivot level is 10000, then I would buy a decline to 10003 and short a rally to 9997. Sometimes the pivot will be an odd number, such as 10003.68. In this case I always round in the direction of the trade. So, if Im bidding for a long, I will round 10003.68 to 10004, and my bid will be 10007 for a long and 10001 for a short. My stops and targets, then, would be quotjust in front ofquot these appropriate long and short levels. Once filled, place an order to close the first half at the next pivot level, and the second half at the pivot level after that, using the same quotjust in front ofquot parameters. I place a 20 point stop for the YM. If the first target is hit, move up the stop to your entry level pivot, minus the quotjust in front ofquot fractions discussed in rule 3. For example, if you get in to a YM long position at 10003, and the pivot is at 10000, then your new stop would be 9997 once the first target is hit. If I am in a trade at the market close, and neither my stop or target has been hit, I will close my position out quotat the marketquot at 4:10 p. m. Hora do Leste. I dont initiate any new positions after 3:30 p. m. Eastern time, but I will manage existing positions into the close. The markets never have a sustained move above R3 or below S3. If we trade to those levels, I will always fade the move. If I get two losers in a row, Im done with pivots for the day. In Figure 7.1, the CBOT mini-sized Dow futures open mixed and begin selling off early in the session. I place an order to short the next rally to midpoint at 10118, but I dont get filled. Once we break down through the Daily Pivot, I move my order to short down to 10091. This time I get filled, and I place a stop at 10111 and an order to cover half my position at 10069. Im filled on the first half of my order, and I then move my stop down to 10097. My next target is 10041. My next target is hit and Im now flat. The market continues to move lower and tests the next pivot level. I place an order to short at the pivot level above, right at 10035. The market is acting really slow. I put my orders in place and go grab some lunch. By the time I get back Im still not filled, which is why I absolutely love the low volume August trading. It takes a couple of hours but I end up getting filled later in the afternoon. I place a stop at 10055 and my first target is 10015. This target is hit quickly and I move my stop down to 10041. My second target is hit at 9988 and Im now flat. Since the market continues to trend lower, I place a bid to short at the next overhead pivot level and I place an offer at 10008. The market trades right up to this level but I dont get filled. When the market collapses I move my offer down to 9982, but this doesnt get filled either. In Figure 7.2, the markets open mixed and rally into the midpoint at 10189. I set up to buy the first pullback and I place an order at 10163. We come very close to this level, but not quite, and I dont get filled. The market rallies through the next pivot level, and I move my bid up to 10192. The market doesnt even look back and keeps on going, moving up through yet the next pivot level. I move up my bid against to 10221. This time I get filled and place a stop at 10201 and my first target is 10238. The first target is hit quickly and I move up my stop to 10215. My second target is hit at 10261 and I am now flat. The market rallies and I place an order to buy at 10267. I dont get filled and the market closes near its highs. In Figure 7.3, the Dow gaps down and I place in a bid at 10077. I get filled and place a stop at 10057 with my first target at 10090. My first target is hit and I move up my stop to 10071. The Dow continues to rally and my second target is hit at 10104. I place an order at 10096 in order to buy the next pullback. I get filled and place a stop at 10076. The market slows to a crawl for the next hour and nothing happens. Then momentum begins to pick up and Im out of my first half at 10104. I raise my stop to 10090. My second target is hit at 10118. The Dow continues to rally to the next pivot level. I place an order to buy a pullback at 10124. I dont get filled. The market pushes higher to the next level and I raise my bid to 10144. I get filled and place a stop order at 10124 with my first target at 10157. My first target is hit quickly and I raise my stop to 10138. My second target is hit at 10171 and I am now flat. The market continues to rally to the Daily R3. This is a rare event The markets hardly ever get through R3, and I always fade initial moves to these levels. I place an order to short at 10185. I am filled and place a stop at 10205. The markets push up to 10200 and fade into the close. Since neither of my parameters are hit, I cover at 4:10 p. m. Eastern time at 100176. The pivot levels work so well in this regard for three reasons: The first, and most obvious, is that a lot of traders watch these daily levels, so there is a self-fulfilling prophecy involved. The same can be said for Fibonacci Levels, but they do not hold nearly as well as the pivots. Why I elaborate on this in the next two points. On the floor, it is a traders goal to grab two points in the SampP 500 and get out, or 20 points in the Dow and get out. The floor traders all operate in a big circle, with the longer term players in the center of the circle, and the newer players on the outskirts. In its purest form, the traders in the center will get in on a trade, lets say its a long, and then sell their position to the guys on the outside of the circle. What happens is that the traders on the outside, by the time they see the market moving, are the last ones in the pit to get in on the move. If they are lucky, they will then be able to turn around and sell it to the public. As the guys on the outside are selling to the public and closing positions, the guys in the center are selling to the public and opening new short positions. And the cycle renews itself like this throughout the day. This causes a specific dynamic in the markets, generating specific cycles of speed and rest on an intraday basis. They focus on the pivot levels to base their entries and to also gauge market action. The pivots play on this in that they are spaced out to catch these quotpatches of momentum. quot A Dow Pivot is usually 30-50 points apart, and this is the type of movement that perpetuates the cycle I just described. Like a hawk, the floor traders in the center of the circle are catching half this move, dumping it, and waiting for the next level to be hit. One of the main reasons these pivots work has to do with the vast majority of inexperienced traders out there. The floor traders start a trade, and the inexperience of most traders causes the momentum that finishes a trade. How Because the average trader relies on a lot of different quotindicators, quot they are getting in and out of their positions way too late, which causes losing trades and a specific cycle of market movement as their stop placement slowly and steadily increases the velocity of market movement in the direction of their stops. Indicators are just that, an quotindication. quot This is like your girlfriend slapping you across the face, and you taking it as an quotindicationquot that she might be angry with you If it takes a slap across the face to realize this, then you are following the wrong indicators. By the way, all market indicators are the wrong indicators, as they are all lagging. Price action is pure. This over reliance on indicators by the majority of traders is what helps this system to work. By the time the average trader gets a buy signal, the pivot play is almost over and users of this system will be selling their position to the indicator-based trader. Then the subsequent reversal that takes place is because of all the stop losses sitting out there, like trout sunning themselves on top of a lake. easy targets for the hawks who come swooping down from overhead. The market pauses, drifts down, and picks up steam and rips through all of the stop losses, pausing when the run is over. This quotpausequot generally happens at a pivot level. Its where the floor traders are beginning to accumulate their next position for the next cycle of play. Now knowing how this cycle works, lets take a look at a video of a live trading day where I played the pivots, where I sold half at the next pivot level and used a trailing 8 and 21 period exponential moving averages to trail the second half of my position. Ive worked with many traders, and one of the things they find most valuable is to look at exactly the same chart Im looking at throughout the trading day. In this next video, I discuss a recent day of trading that focuses on the pivots, but also combines my discussions regarding moving averages and gaps, as well as utilizing some of my own indicators. Lets take a look at the trading we did in the CBOT mini-sized Dow on Friday, January 7, 2005, using the pivots in the video. The pivot levels work mainly because of the psychology painpleasure cycle that perpetuates the markets each day. Traders who follow only indicators will buy a position when it is halfway to three-quarters the way off its pivot, and it is these traders who provide the stop losses to perpetuate the next cycle of market movement. If you rely only on indicators for your entries, instead of using the price action of the pivots, you will get in and out of these cycles too late, and you wont make any money trading. What is nice about this system is that a trader doesnt have to watch it very closely once he or she is in a position. Im not an aggressive trailer of stops. I like to get in a position, set my parameters, and then focus on other things. Depending on a traders work situation, he could do this at the office, especially on the West Coast of the U. S. and especially if he had an order system that automatically bracketed trades. This way you can place the parameters, and then go to the next meeting or appointment. Let the parameters baby-sit the position . This is much better as well because it takes human emotion out of the equation. Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts I like to focus part of my trading day on scalp plays, where Im jumping in and out of the market with a little piece here, and a little piece there. However, I also like to focus a part of my time on catching potentially bigger intraday moves, as well as multi-day and multi-week moves. What Ill do is focus on scalp plays in one account, and use a second account for swing plays. The quotSqueeze Playquot is a diverse setup that can be used for both scalp plays and swing trades. The Squeeze Play takes advantage of quotquiet periodsquot in the market when volatility has decreased significantly, and the market is building up energy for its next major move higher or lower. This indicator was introduced to me by my trading partner, Hubert Senters, and it has become an integral part of my own trading plan. These quiet periods are identified when Bollinger Bands narrow in width to the point that they are trading inside of Keltner Channels (I just use the default settings on TradeStation for both of these indicators). This marks a period of reduced volatility and signals that the market is taking a breather, building up steam for its next move. I use this signal on various time frames. On the CBOT mini-sized Dow, for example, a squeeze on a two-minute chart can move 10-20 YM points, on a five-minute chart 30-50 points, and on a daily chart, several hundred points. The kicker, of course, is that the smaller the time frame, the more frequent the signals. A two-minute chart may fire off 3-5 signals in a day, while the daily chart will fire off 6-7 signals over the course of an entire year. This is a momentum play. I will buy strength and sell weakness. Trading rules for buys (sells are reversed): Set up a 24-hour chart so the overnight activity can be accounted for in this indicator setup. The quotheads upquot on this indicator is the first black dot. This is not a trade signal, but a quotheads upquot that a trade signal is setting up. The signal on the indicator is the first gray dot after a series of black dots (this will be shown in detail in the charts that follow). Once the first gray dot appears after a series of black dots, I go long if the histogram is above zero. Once the signal fires, I just place a market order. This is a momentum play and I dont want to be messing around with limit orders that may not get filled. For day trades, I place the following minimum money management stops. If the stop is also near a key price support level, I will take that into consideration and adjust accordingly. For example, if my entry is 1104.00 on the SampPs and the Daily Pivot is at 1101.75, I would move my stop to just below that pivot level to 1101.50, for a stop of 2.50 instead of 2.00. I find that nine times out of ten, I just use the default stop. For swing plays and position trades (taken off the daily charts) I place the following stops. I take into consideration the same key levels as discussed in number 4.My target is based purely on the momentum of the trade. Once the momentum signal starts to weaken, I get out of the trade at the market. I dont trail stops. Lets look at some example trades. The chart in Figure 8.1 shows how to set up the elements of this play into whatever time frame you want to view. For intraday trading, I like to watch the five-minute chart. You can watch the one - and two-minute charts, but generally these signals are not as powerful as the five-minute signal, though they are tradeable. The Keltner Channel is the pair of thick black lines and are set at the default parameters of on TradeStation of 20 and 2. The Bollinger Bands are the thinner, gray lines and are set at the default settings of 20 and 1.5. At the bottom is a 12 period (on the close) momentum oscillator. At point 1, you can see that the Bollinger Bands have gone inside the Keltner Channels. This indicates that the market is going into a quiet period, and it is a quotheads up. quot This is not a signal just a heads up that when the Bollinger Bands pop back out, it will be time to take a trade. Here you can see that the Bollinger Bands have come back outside the Keltner Channels. It is time to take a trade. If the momentum oscillator is above zero at this point, I go long. If it is below zero at this point, I go short. I dont mess around with limit orders. I just jump in at the market. This is just an example of what triggers the entry and exits. I will look at specific plays in a moment. One of the things Hubert did was turn all of the things in the first chart in Figure 8.2 into an easy to read indicator, which is what I now use. You can see on the bottom when the Bollinger Bands go inside the Keltner Channels, the dots turn black. This is a heads up that the markets have entered a quiet period. At this point the Bollinger Bands come back out of the Keltner Channels. Since the Momentum Oscillator is above zero, this is a long signal. On the indicator, this is measured by when the dots turn back to gray after being black. When I see that first gray dot, that is my signal to take a trade. Then, if the histogram is above the zero line, I go long, and if it is below the zero line, I go short. Again, this is just to show you how the indicator works. In the next examples I will go over some actually plays. I prefer to take off all of the quotclutterquot that is on the price chart and just use the indicator. But now you know how the indicator works. On the two-minute chart of the CBOT mini-sized Dow in Figure 8.3, we get a black dot a little after 10:00 a. m. Eastern time. This is a signal that the Bollinger Bands have narrowed and are now trading inside of the Keltner Channels. I know when I get the next gray dot, I will have a trade signal. In this case, the gray dot happens right away. Usually there is more than one black dot, but once in a while it will just have the single instance, and thats ok. I find it is best to just take the signal when they come. Humans tend to mess up their trading when they try to out think their positions. When the next gray dot appears, the histogram is above zero, so I place an order to buy YM at the market. I am filled at 10164. I place a 20 point stop at 10144. My target is open as Ill be waiting for the momentum to falter as my exit signal. The market pushes higher and Im watching the histogram. As long as it makes higher highs, I stay in the trade. When it makes its first lower high, I will get out. At 10:30 a. m. Eastern time we get a lower high on the histogram and I exit at the market. Im out at 10198 for a gain of 34 points. In Figure 8.4, on June 28, the markets traded in a tight range all morning, creating a long series of black dots on the 5 minute YM chart. Remember, the black dots indicate that during this time frame, the Bollinger Bands are trading inside of the Keltner Channels, marking a period of very low volatility. A little after 1:30 p. m. Eastern time the first gray dot appears. The histogram is below zero, so I take a short at the market. Im filled at 10426 and I place a 20 point stop at 10442. The goal is to stay in the trade as long as the histogram is making lower lows (or in the case of a long, higher highs). It makes its first higher low nearly two hours later, and I exit at the market (if you were just watching the momentum oscillator, you would exit as it starts to turn higher). Im out at 10325 for a gain of 101 points. In Figure 8.5, on September 10, the five-minute squeeze on YM fires off. About an hour earlier there was a single gray dot, and I went long here. However, the very next dot went back to black. This means that the Bollinger Bands came out of the Keltner Channels, then went right back in. This is a rare occurrence, but when it happens, I just get out and wait for a solid signal. In this case I was in and out and lost 6 YM points. About 50 minutes later we get the setup again and the dots turn gray. For this next trade, with the histogram above zero, I go long and place a 20 point stop. I am in at 10263 and I place a stop at 10243. The histogram continues to move higher until 1:30 p. m. Eastern time, at which point it starts to lose momentum. I cut the position loose at 10309 for a gain of 46 points. In Figure 8.6, a little after 10:00 a. m. Eastern time on July 1, the first gray dot appears on the five-minute YM chart. The histogram is below zero, so I go short at the market. My entry 10402. The markets drift down and the histogram begins to level off. The markets continue to make lowers lows and suddenly the selling accelerates, pushing the histograms down deep into their range territory. They begin to bottom out around 11:20 a. m. Eastern time and I cover at the market. Im out at 10312 for a gain of 90 points. In Figure 8.7, on September 2, the five-minute YM chart goes into alert status around 1:15 p. m. Hora do Leste. Six black dots appear, showing that the Bollinger Bands are trading inside the Keltner Channels. When the next gray dot appears at 1:50 p. m. Eastern time, the histogram is above zero so I go long at the market. I am filled at 10183. I place a 20 point stop at 10163. The market cruises higher and the histogram begins to start making lower lows at 3:30 p. m. Hora do Leste. I exit at the market and am out at 10278 for a gain of 95 points. Not every five-minute squeeze ends up with a big move like this, but Ive found that when there is a big move, it is generally kicked off by a squeeze on the five-minute chart. I have a rule in trading that says, quotNever fight the direction of the five-minute squeezequot It supersedes all of my other intraday trading rules and setups. We looked at a lot of five-minute squeezes on YM, so I wanted to look at a daily squeeze as well. In Figure 8.8, at the end of November, the daily YM went into quotblack dot modequot, and I awaited the next gray dot. We got it on December 1, and since the histogram was above zero, I went long shortly after the open and got filled at 9804. I placed a stop at 9654, 150 points below. The YM rallied into early January and started losing momentum during the second week of the New Year. I exited on January 9, soon after the open at 10506 for a gain of 702 points. Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts Daily Squeezes and Options on the CBOT mini-sized Dow I like to use the daily squeeze to set up option plays on the CBOT mini-sized Dow. This way I can be positioned for bigger moves that occur when the daily squeeze fires off, but still be able to intraday trade in the same account without offsetting my position. Lets take a quick look at a video that shows how to use options and the daily squeeze together. Using the Squeeze for Gold and Silver The squeeze also works great for the CBOT 100 oz. Gold and 5,000 oz. Silver futures contracts, as well as the CBOT mini-sized Gold and Silver contracts. I watch the daily as well as the intraday charts on these contracts, always alert for the next squeeze signal to fire off. Using the Squeeze for the U. S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds The squeeze is also one of my favorite ways to play the U. S. 30-year Treasury Bond futures. I will use this on both daily and intraday charts. Lets look at some static charts, and then well watch another video. I love using the five-minute squeeze on the YM, but it works on other markets as well. In Figure 8.9 is a chart of the U. S. 30-year Treasury Bonds. Around 11:30 a. m. Eastern time the dots turn black, signaling that we are entering into a period of very low volatility. About 90 minutes later we get a gray dot, and since the histogram is above zero, I go long at the market (Point A). Im filled at 111 932 (Point C). I place a 7-tick stop at 111 232 (if you arent familiar with bonds, 1 tick is 31.25. So if you lose seven ticks, that equates to 218.75, or approximately 44 YM points). The momentum starts to peter out about forty minutes later, and when the histogram makes a lower high (Point B), I exit at the market. Im out at 111 1132 for a gain of 2 ticks (Point D). At one point I was up 10 ticks on the trade (the equivalent of 63 YM points) but the market rolled over quickly, which can happen. Whats more important is to stay in the signal until it ends. This way when a big move happens you will be able to stay in the trade and let your profits run. On this five-minute chart in Figure 8.10 of the U. S. 30-year Treasury Bonds, we go into quotblack dotquot territory around 10:45 a. m. Eastern time, and I set back and wait for the next gray dot to appear. This happens a little after 12 Noon Eastern time (Point A) and since the histogram is below zero, I short at the market. Im filled at 110 3032. I place a stop at 111532 (If you are not familiar with bonds, each point goes up to 3132. When it goes to 3232 it becomes a new point. For example, when bonds are at 110 3132 and they move up 1 tick to 110 3232 this reads as 111, and so on). The momentum to the downside builds and bonds sell off. Once the histogram makes a higher low (Point B), I cover my short at the market and Im out at 110 2632 for a gain of 4 ticks. Around 1:30 p. m. Eastern time we go back into quotblack dot modequot and I get prepared for my next trade. About 45 minutes later we get our first gray dot (Point C) and since the histogram is below zero I short at the market. Im in at 110 2132. I place a stop at 110 2832. Bonds sell off and move lower into the close. I cover at the first higher low at Point D and Im out at 110 1632 for a gain of 5 ticks. The market rolled over again quickly thereafter and closed on its lows. On this daily chart of the U. S. Treasury 30-year Bonds in Figure 8.11, we can see that these markets consolidated heavily for nearly a month during most of April 2003. When the first gray dot appeared after this consolidation (Point A), I went long and was filled at 113 1332 (Point C). Because this is a daily chart, I give the trade more room and use a 35 tick stop at 112 1032. Bonds rally through the entire month of May, finally losing momentum in June. Bonds get nearly as high as 122 before crashing on economic news (Point D). That kicks off a lower histogram reading (Point B), and I exit at the market at the end of that day, getting out at 119 3132 for a gain of 6 1832, or the equivalent of a 1,312 point move in YM. Squeezes show me when the markets go into quiet mode. The only reason markets go into quiet mode is because they are building up energy for their next major move. I like to be on the alert for this move, and of course on the alert for the direction of the move. With the squeeze, I have a clear indication of when to take the trade, and once Im in, I just dont mess with the trade. When it starts to lose momentum it is pretty clear, and that is the signal I use to get out. Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts In watching the markets over the years, Ive observed that most reversals take place after three consecutive higher closes, or three consecutive lower closes, and this tendency is valid for all times frames. The key to this setup is that it is based on consecutive quotclosesquot and not just intraday or daily high and low price action for an individual bar. In other words, the highs and lows are not important. Im not interested in three higher price highs or three lower price lows. I want to see where the action settles or closes, as that is where the rubber meets the road. The hard way to follow this play, especially intraday, is to stare at the charts and keep track of consecutive lower or higher closes until you get three in a row. This can cause a person to go bug-eyed, as well as insane, and is recommended only for those who get a thrill from quotthe little things in life. quot Im not a big fan of staring at charts and would be a prime candidate for the mental hospital if I did this with the naked eye. Instead, Ive developed a simple indicator in TradeStation that will quotpaintquot the first bar in the sequence after the third bar has met the criteria for a signal. Once I see the paint bar, I just place a market order and Im in the trade. Even better, I set up an audio alert so that if Im down the hall, Ill hear the signal and come back to my computer to place the trade. This works when Im on the phone with my wife as well, though she has yet to appreciate the importance of the signal and my urgent need to hang up in the middle of our conversation. Such is the life of a trader. Here is how it works: I am watching the charts and I get three bars in a row that make higher closes. At the close of the third consecutive bar, my paint bar appears on the chart, and it is marked over the first bar in the sequence of third bars. I place an order to go long at the market. To get out of this long position, I just wait for three consecutive lower lows to occur, and that will be my signal to exit the trade, and potentially go short. Although this is a very easy trade to execute, it may not make sense right out of the gate. Dont worry, if this sounds a little unclear, we will be looking at some charts soon enough. I use this signal on various time frames. For scalping the CBOT mini-sized Dow, Gold, Silver and U. S. 30-year Treasury Bond futures, I like to use the 144 tick chart and the five-minute chart. For swing trades, I will use both sixty-minute and daily charts. THIS IS A MOMENTUM REVERSAL PLAY. I WILL BUY A REBOUND AFTER A SELLOFF UPON CONFIRMATION AND SHORT A PULLBACK AFTER A RALLY UPON CONFIRMATION. TRADING RULES FOR BUYS (SELLS ARE REVERSED): Set up a 24-hour chart on intraday charts so the overnight activity can be accounted for in this indicator setup. This can be used on all time frames. The larger the time frame, the larger the parameters and potential move. For daily charts I will use the regular session hours. After three consecutive higher closes, go long at the market, at the close of the third bar in the sequence. The trade is valid until you get three consecutive lower closes, at which point you would exit the trade. If the market is still open for an intraday trade, you can simultaneously exit a long and establish a new short position. If Im in an intraday trade (fifteen-minute chart or smaller) and the market closes before giving an exit signal, I will exit at the market 4:10 p. m. Hora do Leste. For time frames that are sixty-minutes and above, I will stay in them overnight and exit at the next signal. This could be the next day for a sixty-minute chart, and it could be a month later for daily charts. In Figure 9.1, in this daily chart of the CBOT mini-sized Dow futures, a long signal occurs on August 10, which paints the August 6 bar. I go long at the close of August 10, and Im filled at 9916. Im now waiting for the next reversal signal in order to exit the trade. The next signal hits on September 7, nearly a month later. Im out at 10278 for a gain of 362 YM points. This is a good example of a play for people with insomnia, or who are living in a time zone overseas that is contusive to this type of trading. In Figure 9.2, on October 1, a reversal signal setup on the U. S. 30-year Treasury Bonds in the wee hours of the U. S. night. Im working on my newsletter late at night (the pros and cons of writing a nightly newsletter), and I take the short. Im filled at 112 132. I will stay in the trade until the next reversal signal. A few days later I get a reversal signal on October 4. I cover at 111 832 for a gain of 2532. For those of you who are not familiar with bond pricing, 132 31.25. So a move of 2532 781.25 per contract. I wanted to use this last example in Figure 9.3 to show how I would flow in and out of positions intraday, going both long and short. The first signal on October 6, in YM, was painted at 10:35 a. m. Eastern time. This means, of course, that I am going short at the close of the last bar in the sequence of three bars, which is 10176. The next reversal is noted on the chart at point 3. I cover at 10169 and simultaneously go long. The easy way to do this is to double the amount of contracts you are trading on your exit order. So, if you are long 10 contracts, then you place an order to sell 20 contracts in order to exit your 10 long contracts, and at the same time establish a new position that is short 10 contracts. The next signal occurs at point 5. I go long at 10186 and simultaneously go short at this same level. The next signal occurs at point 7. I cover my short at 10173 and go long at the same level. Figure 9.4 is a good example of a swing play on the CBOT 100 oz. Gold contract. On November 4, there is a buy signal on the daily charts, and I go long at 433.00. The market moves steadily higher, without much in the way of pullbacks. Finally, on December 7, I get a reversal signal and Im out at 453.70, a profit of 20.70 per contract, or 2070.00. This also works great on the 100 oz. Gold intraday, as well as the 5,000 oz Silver contract. Take a look at the following video for example plays in the CBOT mini-sized Dow, Gold, Silver and U. S. 30-year Treasury Bonds. This setup is especially useful for traders who like to try to buy bottoms or short tops. While it is foolish to short a stock just because its quottoo high, quot or buy a market because its quottoo low, quot its fine to short that high flyer or buy that all out loser once you get a reversal confirmation with this signal. It doesnt mean that the exact highs or the exact lows are in place, but it does mean that there has been a temporary shift in power, and it is your signal to step in and establish a position. Whether this is an intraday reversal on a five-minute chart, or a total market reversal off a daily chart, the concept is exactly the same. In addition, this play is based on pure price action, and I appreciate its simple and effective nature. Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts The best intraday trades take place when a trader is able to catch the major portion of an intraday reversal. One of the best ways to do this is with a specific price pattern that we call bricks. We call them quotbricksquot because the price pattern that is formed looks like a bunch of building blocks that have been placed on top of a regular bar chart. These building blocks are formed on the chart due to specific price action. A series of three consecutive higher closes will form an quotupquot brick, and a series of three consecutive lower closes will form a quotdownquot brick. If you have a hard time pulling the trigger, this is a good play to use with BUY STOP and SELL STOP orders, as you will see in a moment. If you dont have a hard time pulling the trigger, then you can just wait for the signal and then go in at the market. This is one of those plays that is difficult to explain, but easy to show. In this case, a picture is worth at least 1000 words. Lets go through the trading rules and then go over a couple of actual plays. THIS IS A MOMENTUM REVERSAL CONFIRMATION PLAY. TRADING RULES FOR BUYS (SELLS ARE REVERSED): Set up a 24-hour time frame on an intra-day chart so the overnight activity can be accounted for in this indicator setup. This is best used on smaller time frames, typically under five minutes. Once a market shifts direction, count backwards to the third brick in the formation. Then draw a horizontal line across the top of this third brick back. Once the price action breaks above this horizontal line, go long. Hubert and I use this setup on the CBOT mini-sized Dow, and we both manage this trade differently, so I will go over both of our methods. For Hubert, he places a 10 point stop from the entry. Then when he is up 10 points, he sells half his position, and moves his stop to breakeven -3 (so if his entry was 10545, then his new stop is 10542). If the market goes up another 10 points, he sells a quarter of his position, and then moves up his stop 6 points to breakeven 3 (so if his original entry was 10545, his new stop is 10548). He then hangs onto his last quarter of the position to exit at his discretion. This typically involves a move that accompanies an extreme tick reading. For myself, I will get into the same trade and use a 20 point stop. I will exit half my position at 15 points, and then stay in the trade until there is a brick that has formed in the opposite direction. I dont trail the stops. Both methods have worked well for us, and this is a good example of how different traders can take the exact same setup and modify the trading methodology to fit their own particular personality. Lets take a look at some actual plays: On this two-minute chart of the CBOT mini-sized Dow futures in Figure 10.1, a long signal occurs around 1:00 p. m. Eastern time when the price action reverses and crosses above the horizontal line created by the third brick back in the series. The quotupquot bricks are blue, and the quotdownquot bricks are red. In this instance, YM rallies up to 10689. Our entry is at 10629. Hubert is using a 10 point stop and Im using a 20 point stop. Hubert exits half at 10639, a quarter at 10649 and the remainder at 10675 when YM comes up against key resistance. I exit the first half at 10644, and I stay in the second half until the bricks reverse and Im out at 10672. On this two-minute chart of the CBOT mini-sized Dow futures in Figure 10.2, a short signal occurs around 11:00 a. m. Eastern time, when the price action reverses and crosses below the horizontal line created by the third brick back in the series. In this instance, YM declines to 10646 before reversing. Our entry is at 10704. Huberts stop is 10 points, while mine is 20 points. Hubert exits half at 10694, a quarter at 10684 and the remainder at 10668 when YM sells off through key support on an extreme tick reading. I exit the first half of my position at 10689 and exit the second half at 10658 when the market reverses and generates a new brick long signal. The brick plays can take a little while to understand exactly how they work. Hubert has put together a video that shows how bricks work in more detail, as well as discusses additional sample plays. This setup is great when trying to catch an intraday reversal. Too many traders try to do this but end up getting burned. They short the market and it just keeps going higher, or they buy the market and it gets flattened. There is no reason to try to catch the exact high or the exact low in a market move. That involves too much risk and has a low probability of success. With this confirmation signal, a trader will be made aware of when the move is confirmed to be over, and still be able to catch the quotmeat of the move. quot Joined Feb 2006 Status: Member 313 Posts Trade The Markets was founded by John Carter in 1999, and is an online provider of short-term financial market commentary designed for both swing and intraday trading of stocks, options and futures. We focus on the power of short-term price movements to produce steady profits. We are just as likely to be long as we are short. Utilizing leading software and core trading techniques, our strategy for stocks is to scan through thousands of price charts each trading day. For futures trading, most of our intraday trading techniques are focused in the CBOT mini-sized Dow, Gold and Silver, as well as the U. S. Treasury 30-year Bond futures. We apply a combination of technical analysis, pattern recognition, and market outlook to discover short-term, high probability trading opportunities in these and other markets. Who Are the People Behind Trade The Markets Everyone who contributes to Trade The Markets is a full time trader who either had the benefit of learning to trade from a successful mentor, or graduated from the school of hard knocks8212losing money every way imaginable before developing their own successful trading rules. We all trade full time for a living, and most of work with managed funds and accounts. This website was the natural outcome of posting trades with each other, and the desire to help out others who want to give trading a shot. By posting our research to the site each evening, and by calling out live trades in our audio live trading rooms, we are helping ourselves because it forces us to do a full night8217s worth of research each evening, and gives us an extremely disciplined approach to the markets. Were also helping our members and have shown that we can also save traders valuable time--when you are running short on time, we still do a full nights worth of research and post our findings and specific trading ideas for the next day. What8217s The Different Between Your Stuff and Others There are four things we specialize in that make us stand out from the crowd: Entry and Exit Point Focus, Real Track Records, Education, and Accountability. We are a quotno-hypequot site that focuses on what works over the short term. And we post all of our trades, the good, the bad, the great, and the ugly, so you can evaluate for yourself how we do in all market conditions. We offer three newsletters that focus on stocks, options and futures. We also have a live audio trading room where our voices come out through your computer speakers, and we are able to share the charts we are using live with our members. In there, we discuss our trading philosophy and record our trades as they happen, in real time. The newsletters are generally published five days a week and have intra-day updates. Each focuses on a particular area of the markets. Each newsletter provides market commentary, a model trading portfolio, trading ideas with specific entry, exit, and stop loss price levels, and tips on how to find these trades on your own. Our typical holding period is a few days to a few weeks, making it ideal for part time traders who don8217t have time to sit in front of their computers monitoring the markets all day. If you click on the link below, you will see a recent example of our 8220E-mini amp Single Stock Futures Newsletter8221 where we focus on setting up swing trades in the CBOT mini-sized Dow, Single Stock Futures, U. S. 30-year Treasury Bonds, and other markets. View the PDF below: In the Live Audio Trading Room, we focus mostly on intraday trading of the CBOT mini-sized Dow. The Live Audio Trading Room is geared towards active, full time traders and it has been a huge hit with our members. The link below will hook you up to a video that talks more about our philosophy and backgrounds, as well as some information about our newsletters, trading room, and opportunities for further education and experience. Free two week trials are available for everyone at our site, tradethemarkets. By logging into the live trading room, you will be able to ask questions 8220free8221 for two weeks. This is a great way to get any questions asked about this tutorial. However, please confine your questions to between 12:00 Noon 8211 2:00 p. m. Eastern time, as we are trading the rest of the time. Room membership is limited, and you must be voted into the room by the existing members if you wish to stay beyond the two weeks. If you have any questions regarding any of the trading strategies presented here, please feel free to contact me at jcartertradethemarkets. or call us toll free at 888-898-8118. If you have any questions regarding the CBOT mini-sized Dow, Gold, Silver or U. S. 30-year Treasury Bond contracts, feel free to contact the CBOT at wwwcommentscbot.